U.S. Primacy Under Threat in Trade War

Discarding a Financial Order Built With Trust

Author

Matt Davis
April 06, 2025

Good morning. I’m about to go and lose spectacularly to my father-in-law at golf. He graciously lets me play in the “blitz” at Virginia Beach National, where my handicap is by far the highest of anyone else in the group of about a dozen players. My contribution to the pot is essentially to the prize money of the other players, although who knows. I might get the odd “closest to the pin” (unlikely) or “birdie” (I’ve only ever gotten two in my life). I’m really out on the golf course, like our president, in the hopes of easing a bit of stress caused…by our president. Wish me luck.

Before I go I did have time to look at the front page of the paper, which has vivid photographs of the environmental cost of war. The war in Ukraine has also caused roughly a million deaths since it began a year ago with Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the country. But sure. The dolphins are also suffering, too.

There’s an interesting story below the fold:

I’m gonna go with “not a hate crime.” You?

But the lead story is this one by Patricia Cohen, which reports that President Trump's trade policies, including imposing widespread tariffs, threaten the global economic order and America's economic dominance, risking long-term damage to the U.S.'s financial power and global reputation. This shift towards coercion over cooperation could diminish the dollar's status and weaken America's influence worldwide.

Gone are appeals to a larger purpose, mutual agreements or shared values. In this new order, the strongest nations determine the rules and enforce them through intimidation and bare-knuckled power.

The problem with this approach, if you ask me, is that at a time when the world really needs shared values and a larger purpose to avoid serious consequences like mutually assured destruction, that’s a dumb approach to foreign policy. Ms. Cohen’s piece goes on at some length, including a foray into the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.

A weaker dollar means foreign holders of it lose money. “In that sense,” Mr. Eichengreen said, “the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, which is trying to depreciate away its external obligations, is impaired.”

Honestly I wonder whether the Times’s Sunday editors really expected anyone to read it. Then it goes into why America propped up Europe after World War Two.

Washington provided enormous economic support through the Marshall Plan because it believed a stronger Europe would be in America’s long-term interest.

Now that we’re not doing that, there are risks:

If countries believe the global order is dominated by a capricious leader, they will look for alternatives. Over time, that could downgrade the dollar’s status and reduce allies’ reliance on American weapons, technology and products. It could also strengthen China’s hand at the expense of the United States.

On Sunday, trade ministers for Japan and South Korea, America’s economic partners in efforts to counter China, met with Chinese representatives in Seoul for the first time in five years to discuss expanding regional trade ties. Any closer commercial ties they might forge with China could significantly undermine Washington’s goal of slowing breakout advancements in technology by China.

And that, said Mr. Newman, is “the opposite of what the U.S. would hope to achieve.”

Oops. Breaking news: Donald Trump’s tariffs are a monumentally catastrophic move.

But at least we have something in common. He’s been playing in a Saudi-funded golf-tournament. I’ve been playing in a me-funded golf-tournament. And he, it turns out, is actually better than me at golf…

I asked my father-in-law if he’d play a round with Trump if the opportunity was offered. He said no, because Donald famously cheats. This gives me the chance to show this picture, and to wish you all a happy Sunday.

Look at that red glove Sean Connery is wearing with that Slazenger sweater. This is not a subtle image. It is a devastating one. And it has very little to do with golf.

Thanks for letting me read the newspaper so that you don’t have to!


Matt Davis lives in Manhattan with his wife and child.

Standard disclaimer: I read the top story in the New York Times every morning so that you don’t have to. If you were forwarded this, you can subscribe here. I’m also doing a five-minute video version of this, each weekday morning at around 9 a.m. (depending on how long it takes me to read the newspaper). If you’d like to follow me on LinkedIn (you can always watch the recording later). If you subscribe to my Youtube channel it’ll also send you a notification when I’m “going live.”