Trade War Cascades From Europe to Asia to the Gulf Coast

This morning’s lead story is reported by 10 people. Next time somebody tells you the New York Times is “fake news” you might want to remind them that it’s actually all about reporting facts in a democracy, and that such a thing takes time, effort, and energy. I hate the Times sometimes (some of their editorial choices are truly boneheaded) but I love that it exists and that these people are breaking their backs for low pay to help us all understand what is going on in America and around the world. #NewsMatters

The story rounds up efforts by countries around the world, particularly in Asia but also in Europe, to counter Donald Trump’s new tariffs with negotiations. I’ve noticed that Mr. Trump has enjoyed being photographed on his plane a lot lately. It gives the impression of a busy, powerful man in motion, rather than a psychopath hurting himself in a cave.

The reporters have spoken with a variety of sources to get the story written. The bottom line is that most nations want to negotiate with President Trump but aren’t sure how best to go about it. Here’s a nice detail:

You go, Lesotho! 🇱🇸 

Yesterday the Trump administration sent mixed messages about its willingness to negotiate. You’ll remember that over the weekend Mr. Trump was sending all-caps messages on “truth social” saying he’d never back down. But yesterday, Mr. Trump changed his tune ever so slightly, saying  “negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”

That’s about as far as Mr. Trump goes in terms of backing down. Remember his communications strategy? Okay, as a reminder:

1. Attack, attack, attack.

2. Admit nothing, deny everything.

3. Always claim victory, never admit defeat.

So. Admitting that he’s negotiating, a day after promising his word was final? That’s claiming victory, denying defeat, and maintaining as offensive a position as possible, while admitting you’re perhaps willing to climb down a tad.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also signaled that Mr. Trump is willing to negotiate:

So, that’s that. Markets also look set to jump this morning. Here’s the WSJ:

Senator James Lankford, Republican of Oklahoma, has also told journalists: “I think once the president starts announcing some negotiations in some different countries we’ll start to see the market calm.”

In other words, here’s Donald Trump’s negotiating strategy:

1. Punch you in the face.

2. Say he doesn’t ever want to negotiate.

3. Negotiate.

It’s particularly interesting to see the word “negotiate” appear in Trump’s messaging:

By trumpeting this, Trump is also signaling to investors and others that he’s prepared to cut deals. The story makes much of European indecision in response.

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has signaled toughness in dealing with the E.U., publicly. On Monday aboard his jumbo jet, he said: “The E.U. has been very tough over the years.”

I realize that Mr. Trump’s tactics here have been exhausting to live through over recent days. It was particularly difficult to listen to the BBC News in the car yesterday, hearing a Trump voter in California defend the tactics as “good for America in the long run,” when really none of us knows how this is going to end. Mr. Trump has taken a wrecking ball to established trade patterns and seems content to see where the chips fall. The risk, of course, is that the chips may fall into a recession that hurts everyone and accomplishes almost nothing.

Axios carries an interesting analysis this morning juxtaposing Mr. Trump’s vision of America with that of the tech titans who, so far, have been cosying up to him in droves:

Among them:

And:

On the other side of this fight are men like Steve “I wear two shirts at all times” Bannon, who sound delusional:

The issue with this view is that it’s not likely to pan out.

There’s also a rift opening up at the White House. Elon “Arm Gesture” Musk has spoken out against Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, in blunt terms.

I’m not going to say Elon Musk is a marvel. He has, in the past, deleted tweets absolving Hitler for the holocaust (WTF!). But if Mr. Navarro is denying there’s a rift with him in terms like these, then there’s a rift:

So we’re in a situation where Mr. Trump is listening to one group of delusional idiots because he’s soured slightly on listening to a Nazi billionaire with a ketamine habit who is tanking him in the polls. The problem, it seems, is that the Nazi billionaire with the ketamine habit might be the saner adviser on this front, and that leaves you wondering whether Mr. Trump might have simply surrounded himself with crazy people who are, between them, not terribly good for America or the world.

If only Mr. Trump had a smart, sane voice of reason in his cabinet, someone whose interests were aligned only with the patriotic interests of Americans. Perhaps even two or three such people. The trouble is, all those people were fired already, probably under the previous Trump administration. They went on to write books decrying Mr. Trump as a fascist with dictatorial impulses and now they’re where Mr. Trump feels they belong: Under the bus.

Speaking of those people former National Security Adviser John Bolton, who is not exactly top of my Christmas card list, wrote a fascinating piece of analysis in the right-leaning Daily Telegraph yesterday:

Here’s the most damning paragraph:

Bolton opens the piece by outlining the essential foolhardiness of trying to figure out Mr. Trump’s intentions in any sphere — particularly tariffs but also referencing his behavior toward Ukraine and Nato.

That’s a dangerous psychopath, right there. And just as a reminder, it’s someone that the majority of Americans voted for in a free and fair election because his opponent was am evidently competent Black woman who occasionally spoke in slightly-too-long sentences.

I mean this wholeheartedly, America: We deserve what we got, here. Let’s hope that the more we suffer the consequences of that election, the more we’re forced to reflect on whether we could have all done better. I really would love to believe that we can, next time around.

Thanks for letting me read the newspaper so that you don’t have to. Please share this newsletter with your family and friends so that they don’t have to read the newspaper either.

Matt Davis lives in Manhattan with his wife and kid.

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