Russia Testing Trump's Mettle Over Ukraine

Then, during an Arctic appearance late last week, Mr. Putin suggested a temporary Ukrainian government might need to be installed under the auspices of the United Nations and an election might need to be held to pave the way for a lasting end to the war.

The implication was that a quick peace would not be in the offing, with Mr. Putin again suggesting he couldn’t cut a deal with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, whom Moscow for months has been tarnishing as illegitimate.

The U.S. president told NBC News this weekend that he was “very angry” about the comments and threatened to impose tariffs on any country buying Russian oil, a measure that could dent Moscow’s most crucial source of income for the war.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Mr. Trump said.

“The geography and brutality of Russian strikes, not just occasionally, but every day and night, show that Putin couldn’t care less about diplomacy,” Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday night. “For several weeks now, there has been a U.S. proposal for an unconditional cease-fire. And almost every day, in response to this proposal, there are Russian drones, bombs, artillery shelling and ballistic strikes.”

At the same time, the White House has taken steps that benefit the Kremlin, including halting the work of several U.S. security agencies to counter Russian sabotage, disinformation and cyberwarfare, disbanding an F.B.I. team that seized the assets of Russian oligarchs and dismantling organizations that Moscow has long loathed, including the aid agency U.S.A.I.D.

The case for motivation and opportunity are easily made. Two retired Russian spies allege that Trump was compromised on his trip to the Soviet Union in 1987 and given the codename “Krasnov.” Trump could well have succumbed to the KGB’s trademark cocktail of flattery and blackmail on that trip. Many other Westerners did. I can also believe that Russia funneled money to Trump in the 1990s to keep his near-bankrupt business empire afloat. I agree that he’s surrounded himself with grifters and oddballs who give spy catchers hives.

But actually running him as an agent? Can you really imagine Trump turning up on time for a clandestine meeting? Remembering where the dead drop is? Filing reports? Using a code book properly? Keeping secrets? Obeying orders? His chaotic, petulant mindset would be a case officer’s nightmare.

The more likely and simpler explanation is that Trump is just what he seems: a Vladimir Putin fanboy—and wildly greedy to boot. He may be an asset to Russia but is not in the formal sense a Russian asset. He admires the Russian president-for-life’s strongman style and the way his regime allows insiders (and Putin himself) to turn power into wealth.

In any case, the result is the same. 

Mr. Trump promised on the campaign trail that he would end the conflict within 24 hours of becoming president. Mr. Putin’s comments made peace seem further away, raising questions about what the American leader will do if he realizes he has hit a wall in his negotiations with Moscow.

“It is an illusion from Trump’s camp that Putin will supply what they want,” Mr. Meister said. “Putin has completely different interests. There is no overlap. It is a construct in a way from the Trump camp, and they will learn it hard.”