Germans Switch to Conservative As Ground Shifts

Merz is expected to be new chancellor after forming coalition

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Just to show I’m in New York City, I’ve placed certain strategic clues in the background…

This morning’s story by Jim Tankersley qualifies as the first semi-optimistic story in the newspaper since I started reading it so that you don’t have to. It’s about Friedrich Merz, chairman of German’s Christian Democratic Union, who has promised to never join with the far-right Alternative for Germany party supported by Elon Musk and J.D.Vance recently.

Germans appear to have “rebuked the country’s left-leaning government for its handling of the economy and immigration,” Tankersley reports. But the good news is that the new prime minister is not a Nazi.

“Mr Merz, 69, has promised to crack down on migrants and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth. He also vowed to bring a more assertive foreign policy to help Ukraine and stronger leadership in Europe at a moment when the new Trump administration has sowed anxiety by scrambling traditional alliances and embracing Russia.”

Merz recently told a television audience “it’s clear that the [Trump] administration is largely indifferent to Europe’s fate, or at least to this part of it.”

That’s a stunning statement about the U.S. from the leader of Germany, but it reflects the depth of German surprise and disappointment at, for example, being told to “vote Nazi” by JD Vance last week.

The rest of the article is about the next steps, which are to form a messy coalition and do the best they can. European governments tend to live and die on their ability to compromise with each other but I’ll take that, and some voter anger over egg prices, compared to the grimmer possibilities that were on offer. I studied World War Two at school and never expected in my lifetime to see Germans supporting a party that diminishes the Holocaust and flirts with Nazi ideology. It’s devastating and depressing and it goes to show the importance of informed voters. I’m also pleased to see that a majority of Germans didn’t go that way. But don’t expect the AFD party to go away. They’ll lurk on the far right like the UK Independence Party have in England, for the next several years.

Another story on today’s front page by Robert Jimison is also rather cheering. “Anger at town halls hints at broader backlash,” is the headline, and it quotes countless disappointed Republicans rebuking Republican congressmen.

“During a telephone town hall with Representative Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma, a man who identified himself as a Republican and retired U.S. Army officer voiced frustration over potential cuts to veterans benefits.

“How can you tell me that DOGE with some college whiz kids from a computer terminal in Washington, D.C., without even getting into the field, after about a week or maybe two, have determined that it’s OK to cut veterans benefits?” the man asked.”

Why does this matter? Well…

“With their already narrow majority in the House, G.O.P. lawmakers are in a fragile position. A voter backlash could sweep out some of their most vulnerable members in midterm elections next year. But the pushback in recent days has come not only in highly competitive districts but also in deeply Republican ones, suggesting a broader problem for the party.

And there is little sign that Mr. Trump is letting up. On Saturday, Mr. Trump said in a social media post that Mr. Musk “is doing a great job, but I would like to see him be more aggressive.” Mr. Musk responded by sending government employees emails that he said were “requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.””

I guess if you vote for Donald Trump, you get what you voted for. Now, I’m not a huge fan of Democratic strategist James Carville, but he was quoted in the New York Post yesterday saying this:

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And I can’t say that on the current trajectory, I disagree with him. He suggests Democrats “play possum” for the time being, which I think is consultant speak for “do nothing” or, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Still, thanks for reading. And please, do us all a favor and share this newsletter with a friend who might benefit from or enjoy it, likewise, please, talk with your friends about what’s in the news! Thank you.

Matt Davis lives in Manhattan with his wife and kid.